| Gartner Report: Android will have 1/2 World Mobile OS & Windows Will Pass iOS in 2015 |
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By Salar Golestanian @ Friday, April 08, 2011 :: 2:14 PM :: 686 Views :: 0 Comments ::  |
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Gartner Head Office is only 10 minutes drive from me so I watch with great intrest for what every they predict for the future of things to do with IT. Today's Press Release was very intresting with Gartner Says Android to Command Nearly Half of Worldwide Smartphone Operating System Market by Year-End 2012. And what was more intresting was their predictions for iOS and Windows Mobile.
This is what Gartner says:
"Worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 percent increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. By the end of 2011, Android will move to become the most popular operating system (OS) worldwide and will build on its strength to account for 49 percent of the smartphone market by 2012"
Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units) Gartner Press Release
|
OS
|
2010
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2011
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2012
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2015
|
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Symbian
|
111,577
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89,930
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32,666
|
661
|
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Market Share (%)
|
37.6
|
19.2
|
5.2
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0.1
|
|
Android
|
67,225
|
179,873
|
310,088
|
539,318
|
|
Market Share (%)
|
22.7
|
38.5
|
49.2
|
48.8
|
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Research In Motion
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47,452
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62,600
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79,335
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122,864
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Market Share (%)
|
16.0
|
13.4
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12.6
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11.1
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|
iOS
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46,598
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90,560
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118,848
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189,924
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Market Share (%)
|
15.7
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19.4
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18.9
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17.2
|
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Microsoft
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12,378
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26,346
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68,156
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215,998
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Market Share (%)
|
4.2
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5.6
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10.8
|
19.5
|
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Other Operating Systems
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11,417.4
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18,392.3
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21,383.7
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36,133.9
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Market Share (%)
|
3.8
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3.9
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3.4
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3.3
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Total Market
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296,647
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467,701
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630,476
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1,104,898
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Source: Gartner (April 2011)
The bit that shocked me was Gartner prediction that Apple’s iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide only till 2014 despite its share deceasing slightly after 2011. However, in analysing a little more I noticed that this reflects Gartner’s underlying assumption that Apple will be interested in maintaining margins rather than pursuing market share by changing its pricing strategy. So Gartner Prediction is going to fall apart if Apple produces a iPod like phone at iPod price that they most certainly can do so even now. So if Apple continues with their high Margin strategy then they are DOOMED. As this scenario will be continuing to limit adoption in emerging regions like India China and South America. At high margin scenario the iOS share will peak in 2011, with volume growth well above the market average. This is driven by increased channel reach in key mature markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.
RIM's (Research In Motion) share over the forecast period will continue to decline, reflecting the stronger competitive environment in the consumer market, as well as increased competition in the business sector. Gartner has factored in RIM’s migration from BlackBerry OS to QNX which is expected in 2012.
What has changed the landscape for Microsoft Windows Phone is that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012. This means the lower cost phones. So Please note that will mean that low cost offerings like android at around 100 USD or Nokia phones at around 100 USD. This will help numbers, But will not help margins or the high end Phone market that will continue to remain with Apple and Android IMO.
Gartner is also saying that the ecosystem is going to be more diverse and widened with more playters in both Operating system Device options with the growth in sales of media tablets expected in 2011 and future years will widen the ecosystems that open OS communications devices have created. This will, by and large, function more as a driver than an inhibitor for sales of open Source Operating system devices.
“Consumers who already own an open OS communications device will be drawn to media tablets and more often than not, to media tablets that share the same OS as their smartphone,” Ms. Milanesi said. “This allows consumers to be able to share the same experience across devices as well as apps, settings or game scores. At the same time, tablet users who don’t own a smartphone could be prompted to adopt one to be able to share the experience they have on their tablets.”
Gartner’s detailed forecast is available in the report “Forecast: Mobile Communications Devices by Open Operating System, Worldwide, 2008-2015.” See the the report is available on Gartner's website at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1619615. |
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